Greek Renaissance, Ελληνική Αναγέννηση: Η σχετική γελιογραφία του WSJ

Greek Renaissance - Ο Επίτροπος Olli Rehn στην Wall Street Journal: Athens has proven its critics wrong by implementing an ambitious and front-loaded fiscal adjustment program.

Greece has taken drastic, sometimes painful, steps to turn an unsustainable situation around. Fiscal consolidation is progressing following austerity measures totaling about 8% of GDP this year. Reforms of fiscal governance have advanced, for instance in tackling tax evasion. Structural reforms are moving forward, from easing labor-market rules, to raising the statutory retirement age and cutting pensions, to improving the business environment by cutting red tape. Some reforms are being implemented even ahead of schedule. The establishment of a new Financial Stability Fund to deal with the recapitalization and restructuring of financial institutions, if necessary, enhances the resilience of the financial system.

Athens has proven its critics wrong by implementing an ambitious and front-loaded fiscal adjustment program.

Recall March 2010. Tensions over the Greek debt crisis were running high within the euro zone and among our international partners. People were talking about the end of the single currency. After weeks of intense consultations, phone calls, long days and even longer nights locked in meetings, a sense of determination and solidarity prevailed among European policy makers: "We swim together or we sink together."

Then came May 2010. Europe agreed on a joint euro area and IMF loan-support package for Athens, conditional on Greece's strict implementation of a credible fiscal adjustment program. Many outside critics doubted whether Athens could get the job done.

Now, August 2010. The Commission's first review of the program's implementation shows that, so far, Athens has proved the doubters wrong. Greece's ambitious and front-loaded adjustment program is on track to deliver a return to macroeconomic and financial stability, and stronger and more balanced growth in the medium-term.

Greece has taken drastic, sometimes painful, steps to turn an unsustainable situation around. Fiscal consolidation is progressing following austerity measures totaling about 8% of GDP this year. Reforms of fiscal governance have advanced, for instance in tackling tax evasion. Structural reforms are moving forward, from easing labor-market rules, to raising the statutory retirement age and cutting pensions, to improving the business environment by cutting red tape. Some reforms are being implemented even ahead of schedule. The establishment of a new Financial Stability Fund to deal with the recapitalization and restructuring of financial institutions, if necessary, enhances the resilience of the financial system.

Athens will have to continue on this path to regain investors' trust, rigorously implementing reforms and, where possible, surprising the markets by hitting some of its budget targets ahead of time. To enhance economic growth, create jobs and improve its competitiveness, Greece must further liberalize and deregulate key sectors of its economy, particularly tourism, retail trade, energy, transportation and a number of closed professions.

I am aware that the Greek reform drive has not killed concerns that Athens might yet be forced to restructure its debt. For several intertwined reasons, I find these concerns unfounded.

First, while the program is no doubt ambitious, it is also realistic. It is based on a prudent macroeconomic scenario, yet the debt dynamics are designed to be sustainable even under a more conservative projection throughout the program. In fact, the impressive progress with structural reforms is likely to lead to a higher than assumed GDP growth. The pension reform that is being implemented ahead of schedule will considerably reduce future spending pressures. Achieving the program's fiscal targets is also facilitated by structural reforms improving tax administration and tax compliance, as well as efficiency of public expenditure.

Second, the broader structural reform agenda embedded in the program serves to strengthen Greece's medium-term growth potential and thus improves debt sustainability dynamics. Moreover, the country's pension reform enhances the longer-term sustainability of its public finances.

Third, those advocating debt restructuring tend to understate its vast costs. It would mean severe knock-on effects, through a protracted disruption of the broader economy and financial system in Greece, and have adverse consequences for the whole euro area and the global economy. Its political costs would be extremely damaging not only for Greece but for the euro area and the European Union as a whole.

While improving credibility does not happen overnight, we are seeing signs of a gradual stabilization in market sentiment toward Greece. I am confident that risk perceptions will ease as the adjustment moves forward, which should lay the ground for an eventual orderly return to market access. This will also allay fears that the benefits of the program could all be undone by an eventual debt restructuring.

From a broader perspective, the sovereign debt crisis, and the Greek case in particular, have exposed systemic weaknesses in the EU's economic governance. To avoid future similar crises, the Commission has made proposals to fundamentally strengthen the preventive and corrective fiscal surveillance at EU-level, as well as to create a framework for tackling emerging macroeconomic imbalances. I intend to put forward a legislative package on governance reform by the end of September.

The Greek crisis has led not only to a turning point in the economic development of the country, but has also provided a critical impetus to improve the economic governance of the euro area and the EU. I am certain that this will make the economic and monetary union more functional and robust, and the EU will thus emerge stronger from the crisis.

Mr. Rehn is European commissioner for economic and monetary affairs.

Πηγή: Wall Street Journal, 24 Αυγούστου 2010

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